Holden, MH, MD Akinlotan, AD Binley, FHT Cho, KJ Helmstedt, and I Chadès. (2024). Why shouldn’t I collect more data? Reconciling disagreements between intuition and value of information analyses. Methods in Ecology and Evolution.
Cattoni, V, LF South, DJ Warne, C Boettiger, B Thakran, and MH Holden. (2024). Revisiting Fishery Sustainability Targets. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology.
Holden, MH, Plagányi, EE, Fulton, EA, Campbell, AB, Janes, R, Lovett, RA, Wickens, M, Adams, MP, Botelho, LL, Dichmont, CM and Erm, Helmstedt, K, Heneghan, R, Mendiolar, Richardson, A, Rogers, J, Saunders, K, M, Timms, L. (2024). Cost-benefit analysis of ecosystem modeling to support fisheries management. Journal of Fish Biology. Free open access version at arXiv.
Erm, P, Balmford, Krueck, Takashina, Holden, MH. (2024). Marine protected areas can benefit biodiversity even when bycatch species only partially overlap fisheries Journal of Applied Ecology.
Timms, L, Holden, MH. (2024). Optimizing protected area expansion and enforcement to conserve exploited species. Biological Conservation.
Filar, JA, Holden, MH, Mendiolar, M, Streipert, SH (2024). Overcoming the impossibility of age-balanced harvest. Mathematical Biosciences, 367, 109111.
Rogers, AM, Yong, RQY, Holden, MH (2023). The house of a thousand species: The untapped potential of comprehensive biodiversity censuses of urban properties. Ecology, e4225.
Erm, P, Balmford, A, & Holden, MH (2023). The biodiversity benefits of marine protected areas in well-regulated fisheries. Biological Conservation, 284, 110049.
Castonguay, AC, Polasky, S, Holden, MH, Herrero, M, Mason-D’Croz, D, Godde, C, J Chang, J Gerber, G B Witt, ET Game, BA Bryan, B Wintle, K Lee, P Bal, McDonald-Madden, E. (2023). Navigating sustainability trade-offs in global beef production. Nature Sustainability, 6(3), 284-294.
Castonguay, AC, Polasky, S, Holden, MH, Herrero, M, Chang, J, Mason-D’Croz, D, Godde, C, Lee, K, Bryan, BA, Gerber, J, Game, ET, McDonald-Madden, E (2023). MOO-GAPS: A multi-objective optimization model for global animal production and sustainability. Journal of Cleaner Production, 396, 136440.
Plein, M, O’Brien, KR, Holden, MH, Adams, MP, Baker, CM, Bean, NG, Sisson, SA, Bode, M, Mengersen, KL, McDonald‐Madden, E (2022). Modeling total predation to avoid perverse outcomes from cat control in a data‐poor island ecosystem. Conservation Biology, 36(5), e13916.
O’Bryan, CJ, Patton, NR, Hone, J, Lewis, JS, Berdejo‐Espinola, V, Risch, DR, Holden, MH, McDonald‐Madden, E (2022). Unrecognized threat to global soil carbon by a widespread invasive species. Global change biology, 28(3), 877-882.
Holden, MH, & Lockyer, J (2021). Poacher-population dynamics when legal trade of naturally deceased organisms funds anti-poaching enforcement. Journal of Theoretical Biology. See free open access preprint here
Holden, MH, Yen, JD, Briscoe, NJ, Lahoz‐Monfort, JJ, Salguero‐Gómez, R, Vesk, PA, Guillera‐Arroita, G (2020). Assessing the accuracy of density‐independent demographic models for predicting species ranges. Ecography.
Adams, MP, Sisson, SA, Helmstedt, KJ, Baker, CM, Holden, MH, Plein, M, Holloway, J, Mengersen, KL & McDonald‐Madden, E (2020). Informing management decisions for ecological networks, using dynamic models calibrated to noisy time‐series data. Ecology Letters, 23:4:607-619.
Mills, M, Bode, Mascia, M, Weeks, R, Gelchich, S, Dudley, N, Govan, H, Archibald, C, Romero, C, Holden, MH, Biggs, D, Possingham, H. (2019). How conservation initiatives go to scale. Nature Sustainability.
Briscoe, NJ, Elith, J, Salguero‐Gómez, R, Lahoz‐Monfort, JJ, Camac, JS, Giljohann, KM, Holden, MH, Hradsky, BA, Kearney, MR, McMahon, SM, Phillips, BL, Regan, TR, Rhodes, JR, Vesk, PA, Wintle, B, Yen, JDL, & Guillera-Arroita, G. (2019). Forecasting species range dynamics with process‐explicit models: matching methods to applications. Ecology letters.
O’Bryan, CJ, Holden, MH, & Watson, JE. (2019). The mesoscavenger release hypothesis and implications for ecosystem and human well‐being. Ecology letters.
Holden, MH, Biggs, D, Brink, H, Bal, P, Rhodes, J, Macdonald-Madden, E. (2019). Increase anti-poaching law-enforcement or decrease demand for wildlife products? A framework to guide strategic conservation investments. Conservation Letters
Baker, CM, Holden, MH, Plein, M, McCarthy, MA, Possingham, HP (2018). Informing network management using fuzzy cognitive maps. Biological Conservation, 224, pp.122-128.
Braczkowski, A, Holden, MH, O’Bryan, C, Choi, CY, Gan, X, Beesley, N, Gao, Y, Allan, J, Tyrrell, P, Stiles, D, Brehony, P, Meney, R, Brink, H, Takashina, N, Lin, M, Lin, H, Rust, N, Salmo, SG, Watson, JE, Kahumbu, P, Maron, M, Possingham, HP, Biggs, D. (2018). Reach and messages of the world’s largest ivory burn. Conservation Biology.
McGowan, J, Bode M, Holden, MH, Davis, K, Krueck, N, Beger, M, Yates, K, Possingham, HP. (2018). Ocean zoning within a sparing vs. sharing framework. Theoretical Ecology.
Biggs, D, Holden, MH, Braczowski, AR, Cook, CN, Milner-Gulland, EJ, Phelps, J, Scholes, RJ, Smith, RJ, Underwood, FM, Adams, VM, Allan, J, Brink, H, Cooney, R, Gao, Y, Hutton, J, Macdonald-Madden, E, Maron, M, Redford, KH, Sutherland, WJ, Possingham, HP. (2017). Breaking the deadlock on ivory. Science. 358:6369:1378-1381.
Holden, M.H. and McDonald‐Madden, E. (2017). Conservation from the Grave: Human Burials to Fund the Conservation of Threatened Species. Conservation Letters.
Law, E.A., Ferraro, P.J., Arcese, P., Bryan, B.A., Davis, K., Gordon, A., Holden, M.H., Iacona, G., Martinez, R.M., McAlpine, C.A., Rhodes, J.R., Szej, J.S., and Wilson, K.A. (2017). Projecting the performance of conservation interventions. Biological Conservation. 215:142-151.
Holden, M.H. and McDonald-Madden, E. (2017). High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 429:170-180. See open access preprint here
Holden, M.H., N Butt, A Chauvenet, M Plein, M Stringer, I Chadès. (2017) Academic conferences urgently need environmental policies. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 1, 1211–1212. (preprint)
Biggs, D., Holden, M.H., A.R. Braczowski and H.P. Possingham. (2016). Elephant poaching: Track the impact of Kenya’s ivory burn. Nature. 534:7606:179-179.
Holden, M.H. and Ellner, S.P. (2016). Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources. Ecological Applications. 26:5:1553-1565. See open access preprint here
Holden, M.H., Nyrop, J.P. and Ellner, S.P. (2016). The Economic benefit of time-varying surveillance effort for invasive species management. Journal of Applied Ecology. 53:712–721.
Holden, M.H. and Conrad, J.M. (2015). Optimal escapement in stage-structured fisheries with environmental stochasticity. Mathematical Biosciences. 269:76-85.
Low, C., Ellner, S.P. and Holden, M.H. (2013). Optimal control and cold war dynamics between plant and herbivore. The American Naturalist.182:2:E25-39.
Holden, M.H., Ellner, S.P., Lee, D.-H., Nyrop, J.P., and Sanderson, J.P. (2012). Designing an effective trap cropping strategy: the effects of attraction, retention and plant spatial distribution. Journal of Applied Ecology. 49:3:715-722.
We thought we’d find 200 species living in our house and yard. We were very wrong. The Conversation. 2023.
Robots vs. Environmental Managers. Decision Point. 2016. 95:8.
EcoLogic: Can automated algorithms do better than humans in conservation games. Australasian Science. 2016.